Raymond Luo

Running it twice

August 17, 2025

In poker, when two or more players are all in before the river is revealed and there is no more action, they can choose to run it multiple times. Formally, there are $N=\min(n_1, n_2, \dots, n_k)$ runouts, where $n_i$ is the number of times player $i$ wants to run it, until the deck is depleted. On every run, cards are dealt without replacement from the deck and the winner of each run wins $\tfrac{1}{N}$ of the total pot.

When I first learned how to play poker, I was told running it multiple times is an attractive method for some because it keeps the EV the same but reduces variance. For a while, I never fully convinced myself why the EV stays the same but it turns out this is just a simple exercise in conditional expectation.

For simplificity, I will assume hero is all in on the turn (so there is one river card to be revealed) against a single villain and they run it twice. Let $X$ be the event that hero win a runout, $P$ be the size of the pot, $D$ be the deck of cards, and $S$ be the set of revealed cards. Hero's expected value is $$ \frac{P}{2}\cdot\mathbb{P}[X\mid S]+\frac{P}{2}\sum_{r\in D\backslash S, |r|=1}\mathbb{P}[X\mid S\cup{r}]\cdot\mathbb{P}[r]=\frac{P}{2}\cdot\mathbb{P}[X\mid S]+\frac{P}{2}\cdot\mathbb{E}[\mathbb{E}[(X\mid S)\mid r]]. $$ Since $\mathbb{E}[\mathbb{E}[(X\mid S)\mid r]]=\mathbb{E}[X\mid S]=\mathbb{P}[X\mid S]$, the expression simplifes to $P\cdot\mathbb{P}[X\mid S]$, as desired. It is easy to see that you can easily generalize this calculation to multiple players and runouts.